Even Bloomberg is worried... Not just the many blogs that I read.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aaeSiksLwotY
MiB: Bill Miller IV, CIO, PM, Miller Value Fund
3 hours ago
Monday, June 29, 2009
Thursday, June 25, 2009
June 25 - Tidbit of the Day
Hell of an article about Goldman Sachs and manipulation. The latest rage right now for the conspiracy theorists is that Goldman Sachs is the devils workshop. There is some truth to it but I try to keep it in perspective. This article though provides some interesting info.
When you go to the link, the article is easier to read if you make it full sized. See the toolbar just above the article itself? All the way to the right along the line where the page number is there is a symbol that if you click it will make it full screen.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/16752803/The-Great-American-Bubble-Machine
When you go to the link, the article is easier to read if you make it full sized. See the toolbar just above the article itself? All the way to the right along the line where the page number is there is a symbol that if you click it will make it full screen.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/16752803/The-Great-American-Bubble-Machine
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
June 24 - Tidbit of the Day
This is why you need to go beyond the news headlines and dig into the actual information in order to get past the "spin".
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2009/06/june-23-2009-church-attendance-soars.html
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2009/06/june-23-2009-church-attendance-soars.html
Monday, June 22, 2009
June 22 - Tidbit of the Day - Article and Video
Worth reading and watching. A guy with a well established track record.
http://finance.yahoo.com/techticker/article/267617/He-Called-the-2007-Top-and-Recent-Rally,-Now-Charles-Nenner-Sees-Trouble-Ahead-for-Stocks;_ylt=ArrAkrKqyqvcfZGN.grkcaexcq9_
http://finance.yahoo.com/techticker/article/267617/He-Called-the-2007-Top-and-Recent-Rally,-Now-Charles-Nenner-Sees-Trouble-Ahead-for-Stocks;_ylt=ArrAkrKqyqvcfZGN.grkcaexcq9_
June 22 - Tidbit of the Day
A tiny tidbit today. This from a post on a message board that I frequent. These are the types of games that are played and 99% of people have no idea. This rally we've been enjoying the past 3 months was manufactured, pure and simple. Whether the following describes what actually is happening this time or not is up for debate.
It's a fact that institutions have not been buying and that insiders of companies are actually selling at these levels. Even those within the companies know that the current stock prices can't be maintained and are selling.
As always, be aware of what's going on.
===
In his book “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” Jesse Livermore describes the process that large institutions sell large quantities of stock. It is the exact process you describe above. Basically small investors love to buy “bargains”, buy the dips. So the large institutions actually buy the stock to raise prices then let the prices fall. This action gets the buy the dips crowd working and the large institutions sell into this. Once the finish selling, and the buy the dips crowd realizes their strategy no longer works they race for the exits and sell the stock back to the larger institutions at much lower prices. This game has been going on for as long as stocks have been traded.
It's a fact that institutions have not been buying and that insiders of companies are actually selling at these levels. Even those within the companies know that the current stock prices can't be maintained and are selling.
As always, be aware of what's going on.
===
In his book “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” Jesse Livermore describes the process that large institutions sell large quantities of stock. It is the exact process you describe above. Basically small investors love to buy “bargains”, buy the dips. So the large institutions actually buy the stock to raise prices then let the prices fall. This action gets the buy the dips crowd working and the large institutions sell into this. Once the finish selling, and the buy the dips crowd realizes their strategy no longer works they race for the exits and sell the stock back to the larger institutions at much lower prices. This game has been going on for as long as stocks have been traded.
Sunday, June 21, 2009
June 21 - Tidbit of the Day
This is a good article discussing money supply. Puts it into terms even I could follow... for the most part.
http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/quantitative_easing.php
http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/quantitative_easing.php
Saturday, June 20, 2009
June 20 - Tidbit of the Day - Bonus
Came across this in my Saturday evening reading.
http://goldversuspaper.blogspot.com/2009/06/bear-market-targets.html
http://goldversuspaper.blogspot.com/2009/06/bear-market-targets.html
June 20 - Tidbit of the Day
A quick hit article on CNBC... kind of shocking it's on CNBC actually in that they're generally just cheerleaders.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31446671
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31446671
Thursday, June 18, 2009
June 18 - Tidbit of the Day
Take it for what it's worth. But it's kind of nice to get a press release before the next big crash. ;-)
In all seriousness... it's coming. Whether it started last week with the peak of the S&P at 960 or in another week or two with one last rally attempt to 975... it's going to happen.
I've spoken about it before. I talked about the bottom around 650 followed by a 50% rip your face off rally... now it's time for the next wave.
The rip your face off rally caught me completely off guard though because it was straight up and I missed a big chunk of it, but I didn't chase it. I'll wait for it to come back to me.
Please folks... watch things closely and be willing to get out with what you have left if you stayed in this whole time. S&P peaked at 1575 in 2007 and it's heading to 500 or below. That's around a 70% decline, or more. If you get out now with the S&P in the 900 range at least you won't watch your savings cut in half again. If these forecasts are wrong, you'll miss out on a 10% rise. Risk versus reward? Be nimble. Be aware.
This bear market rally was nothing more than a way for banks in particular to recapitalize themselves by selling shares at higher prices only to let things tumble once again. Remember, nothing has changed since last fall. Nothing has been fixed. The accounting rules were changed to make things look better on the balance sheets. That's it. Trillions of dollars thrown at this to keep things afloat, but nothing actually FIXED. Same problems exist.
Rising unemployment means rising foreclosures, means surplus of inventory, means lower prices. Higher interest rates also means lower home prices. All of this hits the people that are able to keep their homes. No home equity available, unable to sell if underwater... We have a long stretch ahead of us that will be unpleasant.
Unemployment and housing aren't the only things obviously. There's commercial real estate, deflation or hyper inflation and a whole host of other pieces to the economy. I'm simple minded so I keep it to just a few things that I can understand.
This is the longest post I've made in a while. Don't take my word for it of course. Read the real news, not the manufactured "green shoots" and cheerleader news.
The article below is not meant to be taken as gospel. It's of course just one opinion. But it's one shared by many that I follow. This is the boldest prediction I've seen though in the way it was announced. I'm taking it with a grain of salt but I do know the peak of this fake out rally is near if not already hit two weeks ago.
The second link below is a chart posted in late February showing what the overall wave structure could look like. A little eerie in that he pegged the 950 range for this rally along with the approximate timeframe even though he admittedly was just drawing rough lines. He admits it isn't to scale per se, but pretty damn good so far. He targets S&P at 300 for the upcoming P3 wave. Again, no guarantees, but worth realizing as a possibility.
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2009/06/prweb2537224.htm
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNNsQutuYl0ACywSVSrH7oDIdTu9r8Ax18DOsEdHl9JYxPdHGste0pbQ4wviY91RCYPOcVzbsoO1Dy1XH5BDVSKVgj3iMTDq2UtaM3X71EJ1zk-eDNNgNleX3nmsA_uBxbZTOdNlYCXmuh/s1600-h/spxweek.png
In all seriousness... it's coming. Whether it started last week with the peak of the S&P at 960 or in another week or two with one last rally attempt to 975... it's going to happen.
I've spoken about it before. I talked about the bottom around 650 followed by a 50% rip your face off rally... now it's time for the next wave.
The rip your face off rally caught me completely off guard though because it was straight up and I missed a big chunk of it, but I didn't chase it. I'll wait for it to come back to me.
Please folks... watch things closely and be willing to get out with what you have left if you stayed in this whole time. S&P peaked at 1575 in 2007 and it's heading to 500 or below. That's around a 70% decline, or more. If you get out now with the S&P in the 900 range at least you won't watch your savings cut in half again. If these forecasts are wrong, you'll miss out on a 10% rise. Risk versus reward? Be nimble. Be aware.
This bear market rally was nothing more than a way for banks in particular to recapitalize themselves by selling shares at higher prices only to let things tumble once again. Remember, nothing has changed since last fall. Nothing has been fixed. The accounting rules were changed to make things look better on the balance sheets. That's it. Trillions of dollars thrown at this to keep things afloat, but nothing actually FIXED. Same problems exist.
Rising unemployment means rising foreclosures, means surplus of inventory, means lower prices. Higher interest rates also means lower home prices. All of this hits the people that are able to keep their homes. No home equity available, unable to sell if underwater... We have a long stretch ahead of us that will be unpleasant.
Unemployment and housing aren't the only things obviously. There's commercial real estate, deflation or hyper inflation and a whole host of other pieces to the economy. I'm simple minded so I keep it to just a few things that I can understand.
This is the longest post I've made in a while. Don't take my word for it of course. Read the real news, not the manufactured "green shoots" and cheerleader news.
The article below is not meant to be taken as gospel. It's of course just one opinion. But it's one shared by many that I follow. This is the boldest prediction I've seen though in the way it was announced. I'm taking it with a grain of salt but I do know the peak of this fake out rally is near if not already hit two weeks ago.
The second link below is a chart posted in late February showing what the overall wave structure could look like. A little eerie in that he pegged the 950 range for this rally along with the approximate timeframe even though he admittedly was just drawing rough lines. He admits it isn't to scale per se, but pretty damn good so far. He targets S&P at 300 for the upcoming P3 wave. Again, no guarantees, but worth realizing as a possibility.
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2009/06/prweb2537224.htm
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNNsQutuYl0ACywSVSrH7oDIdTu9r8Ax18DOsEdHl9JYxPdHGste0pbQ4wviY91RCYPOcVzbsoO1Dy1XH5BDVSKVgj3iMTDq2UtaM3X71EJ1zk-eDNNgNleX3nmsA_uBxbZTOdNlYCXmuh/s1600-h/spxweek.png
Monday, June 15, 2009
June 15 - Tidbit of the Day
Two tidbits for today. One is a video that is fantastic.
I hope everyone has noticed, I don't focus on politics, politicians, etc. So anything I post that may slam a particular agenda isn't an attack on the party that is behind it, but is an attack on the agenda item itself. Both parties have and will continue to screw things up in their own ways. :-)
http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/2009/06/put-it-in-perspective.html
http://market-ticker.org/archives/1122-Proud-To-Be-American-You-Should-Be-Ashamed.html
I hope everyone has noticed, I don't focus on politics, politicians, etc. So anything I post that may slam a particular agenda isn't an attack on the party that is behind it, but is an attack on the agenda item itself. Both parties have and will continue to screw things up in their own ways. :-)
http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/2009/06/put-it-in-perspective.html
http://market-ticker.org/archives/1122-Proud-To-Be-American-You-Should-Be-Ashamed.html
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
June 9 - Tidbit of the Day
I can't help but point this out... In a post I made on December 14th, I said:
"I have come up with a couple of careers that should do well over the next couple of years or more... Insurance fraud investigator because as people become desperate, they'll either lie about items being stolen or when they can't make payments on their vehicles, they'll mysteriously disappear. The other career I see as being strong is auto mechanic. People are going to hang on to their cars longer than they used to and repairs will be inevitable."
And here's an article I read today...
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2009/06/changing-times-different-choices.html
"I have come up with a couple of careers that should do well over the next couple of years or more... Insurance fraud investigator because as people become desperate, they'll either lie about items being stolen or when they can't make payments on their vehicles, they'll mysteriously disappear. The other career I see as being strong is auto mechanic. People are going to hang on to their cars longer than they used to and repairs will be inevitable."
And here's an article I read today...
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2009/06/changing-times-different-choices.html
Monday, June 8, 2009
Sunday, June 7, 2009
June 7 - Tidbit of the Day
More on the housing issue. It's a major thing in my mind. As unemployment continues to worsen, more defaults and bankruptcies to come. As interest rates rise on all of those ARM loans still out there, more defaults and bankruptcies.
Personally I believe that housing prices have a lot further to go on the downside. As interest rates increase, prices decline. That's the give and take. Always has been. The Fed hasn't been able to keep the long term rates down as they'd hoped. A spike in the past month is just the beginning. Also, as more and more people get behind in their payments, foreclosures, etc, the market is going to remain flooded with houses for sale.
http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-the-five-waves-of-the-housing-collapse-2009-6
Personally I believe that housing prices have a lot further to go on the downside. As interest rates increase, prices decline. That's the give and take. Always has been. The Fed hasn't been able to keep the long term rates down as they'd hoped. A spike in the past month is just the beginning. Also, as more and more people get behind in their payments, foreclosures, etc, the market is going to remain flooded with houses for sale.
http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-the-five-waves-of-the-housing-collapse-2009-6
Saturday, June 6, 2009
June 6 - Tidbit of the Day
Glance to the left and you'll see that I added two blogs to my blog listing. They are Zero Hedge and The Automatic Earth. My two favorite bloggers to read each evening.
======================
And today we read about false bottoms in the real estate market.
Note: MSA = Metropolitan Statistical Area (I had to google it to find out what it was an acronym for)
http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/06/04/6-5-beware-real-estate-false-bottoms/
======================
And today we read about false bottoms in the real estate market.
Note: MSA = Metropolitan Statistical Area (I had to google it to find out what it was an acronym for)
http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/06/04/6-5-beware-real-estate-false-bottoms/
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
June 3 - Tidbit of the Day
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/casey/2009/0528.html
A very good article about the alt-prime versus prime mortgage loan issues. Past and future.
A very good article about the alt-prime versus prime mortgage loan issues. Past and future.
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