Now The Party Is Over...

With the S&P finally closing below the November lows and now sitting where it was in 1997, the next wave down should be swift. The question is where does it end up at? 650? 600? 550?... 400 eventually but I don't think that's happening this time around.

The Dow was able to stay above 7000, but not by much.

Citigroup lost about 40% today and sits at a buck and a half. Bank of America is less than four bucks. GM at two and a quarter. And what about GENERAL ELECTRIC?!?!?! Now below NINE BUCKS A SHARE and cut its dividend in a big way.

Folks, how ugly is this really going to get? We're on the brink of the big capitulation moment. We'll have the OH SHIT day I've been waiting for and I still think that 650 on the S&P is the target zone. I'll stick to that until I see evidence of something more perilous.

Every announcement by the gov't is met with skepticism now and we see stocks drop. The various plans and ideas don't have any meat to them. Announcements are made, but details are lacking. It's getting to a point where it doesn't matter what is said or planned, it simply isn't going to help.

I'm hoping for the best but planning for the worst. I'm getting afraid to put my retirement money back in. If I get in at 650 and we fall to 500 I'm down 30%... Maybe the fact that I'm getting worried is a good sign that we're near the bottom. Time will tell. I hope that within 30 days the picture is clearer and I'm invested again for the 50% rally that will ensue.

I'll put this out there... the bottom will occur between Mar 10 and Mar 18. This is from the service I'm subscribed to. We'll see how accurate they are.

At that time there will be the belief that we are 6-9 months away from the end of all this. Remember, the stock market looks that far ahead. We'll rally 50% over a few months and at that point it will be realized that we in fact are not at the end of this mess and the next leg down will be the ugliest of them all taking us into 2010 and a low of 400 on the S&P.