Is The New Bottom Coming?

Wow, I'm back amongst the working class again. After a bit of time on the bench I've been put back to work on a long term assignment. And I'm soooo glad.

So, where are we? Well the Dow is clinging to it's November low while the Nasdaq and S&P are still a decent amount above those levels.

Will we let the S&P get down there and test? We're getting closer. About another 50 points.

The low for this final leg should be around the 675 level on the S&P. We're hovering in the 785 area right now.

There doesn't seem to be anything that'll stop it from happening. No matter how much stimulus or bailouts that are announced, the markets aren't even bothering with fake rallies any more.

I'm watching closely. I'm ready to put my retirement money back in very soon for the 50% rally that will follow. If I'm off by 5-10% I'll be happy. Close enough as they say. I'm even thinking of scaling back in 25% at a time over the next few days or week or so.

There are just so many problems out there it's getting scarier. Desperate attempts at saving various areas such as banks, automakers, mortgages, etc simply don't have enough oomph.

I hate to even admit this but something I just heard Jim Cramer on CNBC say makes sense. I've been dead set against the 'cram down' idea of lowering the principle of homeowners that are in trouble. It just isn't fair that those in trouble get a lowered mortgage. But the idea Cramer just presented is to allow it in order to get the mortgage equal to the new appraisal value and then when the house is sold in the future, any amount above the new value is given to the bank. This way it doesn't benefit the homeowner in any way and the bank at least has a chance of making back the money it lost when the house was reappraised.

How long it takes for all of this to play out is a scary thought. Remember, this low we're about to see is just "a" low, not "the" low. We'll rally 50% but then the next leg down will be THE low. Sometime in 2011 or 2012 is my estimate.

I'll post as I can now that I'm a working stiff again.