Bottom Callers Not Invited Back

I can't help myself, I can't hold it in any longer... If you're a guest on a stock show and you call a "bottom" and within a week or a month it's proven that it wasn't the bottom, you won't be back on television for a year. These guys and gals must be held accountable. Not even the hosts of shows are held accountable. How many times did we hear Cramer, Kudlow and numerous guests of theirs say between January and September that we were at the lows and it was a great buying opportunity? How many times in October have they called a bottom until Cramer FINALLY started talking about selling. Thanks, after the markets are down over 30% he realizes its time to sell. How many billions of dollars did people lose by listening to so called experts?

It's the analysts and guests that get to me more actually. The hosts of the shows are on for entertainment purposes primarily, the expert guests they bring on are supposed to be the ones that know what they're talking about, yet they're just there to hype their companies and bring in new business for more commissions.

This article/link below was interesting in that there are completely differing views on where P/E ratios are right now. One guest on a show says he can't believe how low they are, but that's because he had no idea that historically they really weren't. But in the past 20 years, yes they would be considered low. The next guest, the writer of the article explains that in fact P/E ratios are still historically high even after stocks have plummeted 45%.

I admit, I get swept up at times when I see some of these talking heads claiming that the bottom is here, the corner is about to be turned, valuations are low, we're oversold, etc, etc... but then I read something with some real meat to it, some solid analysis and history and I realize that the bubble we've been in for at least the last 10 years was far bigger than I ever imagined.

We have a long way to go. We have a lot more deleveraging to go. Valuations are not at reasonable levels yet. Yes, many stocks are 50% off their highs, but based on what the real economy will be like for the next 5 years, they're still over priced.

We're going to have one heck of a rally within the next 3 months. I don't know when, but it'll feel good and people will jump into it thinking the worst is over, but they'll be wrong.

We may not see the TRUE bottom until the spring.

We have a lot of margin calls, hedge fund bankruptcies, foreclosures, unemployment, business closings and overall angst to go.

I'm not claiming this will be the end of the world, but we haven't seen anything like this before and its become a global issue.

Do you think Americans know what it's like to live within their means? To save up for something they want to buy? (KMart is advertising Layaway!!) To live without using their home as an ATM machine? It's going to be painful for a lot of people. Folks like us (and I'm speaking about most of my friends that may be reading this), we'll be fine for the most part. We're getting hurt though by the decline in stocks, retirement accounts, etc. but none of us will be losing our homes. We're a frugal group overall.

I hate that all of this is happening, but it's very necessary and it's going to be very difficult for a lot of people for a long time to come.

If the Dow does in fact get down to 5000 that will mean it'll need to almost triple to get back to where it was... As it is now we're almost to the point it'll need to double. That'll be bad enough if we can keep from dipping much lower.

Here's the article of the day to read: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/valuations-low-only-if-you/story.aspx?guid=%7B6071ABC4%2D8568%2D4529%2D8A87%2DE182268CE13E%7D

And on a sad note... today was the last day of the State Fair... I had my last elephant ear and my last italian sausage of the year today for a full 51 weeks...