A Down Day - What a Shock

Up 4% yesterday, down almost 3% today (Nasdaq down 4%)... it's becoming a pattern as of late. Over the past week, every other day up, every other day down. But is it 2 steps forward and 1 step back? There are arguments that we're creeping upwards. There are arguments that we're barely holding on before a downdraft.

Volume was average again which says nobody was running for the hills just as the low volume yesterday meant that there wasn't a rabid need to buy.

Are we in a trading range? Could things calm down a little bit from the volatile nature of things the past month?

As soon as I begin to wonder if maybe it's time to get back in, that upward movement is happening that I realize that we're only 6% from the bottom set on Oct 9. If that were the true bottom we'd have bounced harder. Yes we'll have some rallies, bear market rallies, some will be impressive but I'm not willing to jump in right now. I like the saying "the second mouse gets the cheese". I don't want to be the first mouse.

I'm trying to be patient, I'm trying to keep things in perspective. Primarily, the economy stinks. We haven't even scratched the surface as to the affects on the general population at this point. There is a laundry list of ripple effects we'll see over the next several months. Just today alone I've read news article about retailers that will be going bankrupt, car dealerships that will be going bankrupt, cities and states that are having to cut back due to reduced incoming revenue. I don't think we're within 6 months of the bottom of this. I'll just wait. I don't care how much cheerleading I watch on TV, how many "this is the bottom, time to buy" statements I hear... basically because the ones saying its time to buy are the brokerage houses that want the commissions!

Also it needs to be noted that we're in the middle of 3rd quarter earnings releases and they're coming in mixed. But the overall theme from virtually every one I've read is that forward guidance is very weak. The reason some 3rd quarter earnings look decent is that the 3rd quarter ended Sept 30. The Dow was right around 11,000. The plunge started on Oct 2.

I'd love to be able to play some of these bounces but I have to be careful with my retirement accounts. I'm sure they have limitations as to how many "trades" I can make. I need to call and ask them actually so I don't get myself in a bind not being able to do what I want to do when the time comes.