Where To From Here?

I dunno.

And don't believe anyone that says they do know. From now til the end of the month/year, there's no telling what to expect. Will the final announcement of the 15billion dollar loan to the carmakers be positive or negative? Will there be a santa clause rally or have we already seen that in the past 2 weeks since the week of Thanksgiving? Will the fed get access to the other 350billion TARP money? Will I get my Kindle for Christmas? (the answer is yes to that one).

I got lucky with a trade today and went short at just the right time and made 14% in about 3 hours. I should have held overnight but I got nervous and I've gotten my ass kicked so much lately that I wanted to lock in some profits for a change.

Here's my guess for the next few days. S&P down to about 880, bounce up to 940 and then a sizable drop maybe back down to the 750 range by the end of the month. Then a rip-roaring rally for a couple of months that will suck everyone into thinking that we'd finally hit the bottom. But don't believe it. I'll be watching it closely and if I feel confident that a huge plunge is coming I'll embarass myself and send an email to close friends and family warning them.

I have to say something about the general economy... Debra and I went to Southpoint mall on Sunday and we were amazed how few people were there as compared to what we expected for just 2 1/2 weeks before Christmas. And those people that were there weren't carrying many packages. Tonight (Tuesday) we went to Kohl's and the place was DEAD. Every rack and shelf had a 50% or 60% off sign on it. And we live in a pretty stable, solid area of the country. I wonder just how bad the retail numbers will be for December. I think people have really cut back on their spending this year.