Time To Put 2008 Behind Us

Say farewell to 2008, good riddance. But will 2009 be a better year? So many of the cheerleaders on CNBC enjoy proclaiming that 2009 will be a positive year. I'm not in that camp I'm afraid. This bear market is here for a while. BUT... we will have one rip roaring rally sometime in the first few months of the year that will make everyone think the worst is behind us.

Question of the day... how many retail stores you pass each day today will still be there by the 2nd quarter of 2009? How about only 3 out of 4. 25% of all retail stores closed? It's looking very possible. When the final numbers are crunched after the holidays, a lot of stores will be shutting down. Some overall chains, but mostly just parts and pieces. It'll be realized that we don't need a shopping center on every corner. But what's going to happen when these shopping centers have 25-50% vacancy rates? And malls too. It's going to get ugly. A lot of retailers are already working out new lease agreements with shopping centers and malls to get better rates. A lot of retail jobs are going to be lost in the near future.

What will wave two of the automakers be like? How much will they ask for in the not so distant future? How quick will they burn through that?

Since the markets bottomed on Nov 21 they've tried to rally but there just hasn't been any follow thru. Granted, during the holidays the volume is low but that is usually when some rallies come up. Not this time. I won't be surprised by one last gasp attempt at a rally in the next week, but then we have a leg down. It'll be the final shakeout rally for a while. It'll scare out those remaining nervous folks. Don't fall for it. Hang in there. You've ridden it down this far. THEN the rally to knock your socks off will come. Dow could get back above 10,000 maybe even 11,000. There will be dancing in the streets. For a little while anyway. Then watch here to find out when to get out because the next wave down is going to be The One. Dow 4000-5000. It's coming. Really.

I just wish some movement would happen. These last couple of weeks have been numbing. I'd rather watch paint dry. As long as I didn't have to do the original painting.

Happy New Year!

And here is some reading for you. One of the guys I follow.

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/gkitermi/Wrapping-Up-the-Year-79699.cfm