Happy 2009!

I hope that the title of this post proves to be true for everyone.

It looks like the markets want to start the year off on a high note. They ended 2008 with the biggest final 2 days of the year ever. Almost ironic considering 2008 went down as the 2nd worst year in history.

So, is it rally time? If so, for how long? The markets simply refuse to go back down, so what else can you do... I'm not willing to put any of my retirment money in at this point. We're about 15% above the lows set on November 21. There may be another 10% from here, but that's just a maybe before we see a leg down. It's tempting... but there's still too much indecision out there. With a rally during very low volume you can't be sure if it's real or not. I'll wait. But I may buy some long shares to counteract the shorts I'm holding right now. At least break even if this rally decides to run a little bit.

There's so much hope out there with Obama coming into office. And unfortunately if you base your trading on "hope", you're in trouble more times than not. It may work for a couple of weeks but eventually reality sets in.

Here is a link to a story of a group that made some very accurate predictions for 2008 (not many people that were right about what was coming. Most said the S&P would end 2008 at 1500). And they've included their predictions for 2009.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/689-Where-We-Are,-Where-Were-Heading-2009.html