Economic Data

A lot of earnings out this week and today (Thursday) had some housing data, jobless data and some durable goods data. None of it good. Actually adjustments to prior months was downright ugly. Stocks are down a bit so far today, but still no plummet. Folks are clinging to hope. The big concerns are the forward looking forecasts being made by companies reporting their earnings... if they're willing to make any forecasts at all. Several companies are saying they can't even guess at this point.

The combined S&P500 2009 earnings expectations keep coming down, but the markets keep ignoring it. Based on standard measures, the S&P should be at 600 right now instead of 850. But it'll come.

The gov't is still trying to find new magic tricks. The stimulus package to me is a joke. It won't stimulate much of anything. The Fed announced yesterday all sorts of things they're willing to do if they feel it's necessary. A lot of it is over my head as far as treasuries, bonds, etc.

There's talk about adjusting mortgages and today is an article about incentives for buying new vehicles. http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/23/autos/government_car_incentives/index.htm?postversion=2009012912

The problem is people are scared to death to spend large sums of money due to layoffs etc. Now, here's the problem, it's a giant circle... People afraid of being laid off, therefore they don't spend, the lack of spending slows the economy causing layoffs... Once the cycle starts, it's tough to stop.

I wish I had a solution, but throwing another trillion dollars across the country isn't going to do it and it's just another trillion dollars tax payers will have to cover in the future.

I'm getting more and more concerned about things as I hear more earnings statements from companies.

And how would like to live in California, file your taxes in the next couple of months and instead of getting a refund check, you get an IOU... yep, it's happening.

What happens when states run out of unemployment money? Yep, it's happening.

Ok, enough gloom for today...