Mid Week Madness

A wild Wednesday for the markets. Started off weak and then stayed in a range pretty much the rest of the day. A test of the low from the morning held in the final few minutes. Does that mean a bounce in the morning? Who knows in this market. Bad news gets ignored for over a month then all of a sudden news that to most is obvious such as bad retail numbers causes a 250 point drop. Go figure. After 7 straight days down a bounce would make sense. I placed a small bet on it by selling some of my short shares and going long. Based on my timing of late, I'm sure I'm wrong. :-)

As a reminder, I dabble in some daytrading with a very small amount of money (and getting smaller every week). It's fun when I'm bored sitting at home.

Q: How do you end up with a small fortune daytrading?
A: Start with a large fortune.

The retirement money is still sitting in the peaceful stable value funds waiting for the entry point. As I get a clearer picture of how low this next major leg down will be I'll start moving it back in. We're within a couple or so weeks of the new temporary bottom.

Overall, there is no end in sight for the bad economy to turn around. A couple of weeks ago all of the talking heads were saying the second half of 2009 would be better. Now they're starting to see that the bad keeps getting badder and the second half of the year may be too soon.

Options expiration this Friday, inauguration next Tuesday, Citibank breaking up their business, Bernie Madoff hearings, Steve Jobs 6 month break due to health, earnings starting to come out. A lot out there to sort through and digest.

Here's an article saying housing prices won't bottom out until the 3rd quarter of 2010. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aov5kTvfFfAU&refer=home


The wave structure right now says we could go just about straight down to about 6500 on the Dow from here. That's the primary pattern right now. An alternate pattern (a lot less likely) has a move down to the previous low of 7500 and then a medium sized bounce up to around 9500. Can't wait to see. Got any popcorn?

Speaking of popcorn, Debra and I went and saw the new Clint Eastwood movie over the weekend. It was fantastic. Also one of the most politically incorrect movies ever. Be sure you can handle blatant racism. Imagine Archie Bunker on steroids. But truly an excellent movie. Some Oscar nominations are likely.