Election Boredom

With the election upon us, the stock market seems to have decided to take a nap. Today was BORING. The indices all closed near where they closed on Friday.

So what's next? I'm glad you asked. But you won't like the answer. There is a 20% chance we move up from here. That means an 80% chance of lower. We'll likely test the lows again and then we'll either break down even further, or we'll see one more bounce (which will be a smaller bounce than the one we just saw) before we truly fall off a cliff.

Oh, while I'm thinking about it, watch Goldman Sachs and watch Citigroup. They're both looking very odd, strange, weak. If one or both of them fails, imagine the carnage.

Speaking of carnage, how about the automakers???!!! Now, think about the ripple effects of the auto industry tanking and being hurt. How many hundreds or thousands of suppliers rely on the auto industry? How many medium and small companies will be crippled, shut down, bankrupted due to the slowdown in autos? Scary to think about actually.

So, why only a 20% chance of going up? Well let me ask you a question, what's out there to cause the markets to go up? What is out there over the horizon that says "Things are going to be fine in 6 months"... I don't see anything. I see things getting worse. The govt is running out of bullets, they're running out of kitchen sinks.

How long will stocks stay down? 2 years, 3 years, 5 years, longer? I'm not doom and gloom, I'm simply looking around me when I drive around, when I turn on the news, when I read news stories. We're in trouble folks.

OK, I'm hungry, time to make a hamburger. Back in a bit.