Monday, November 24, 2008

Lucy.... you got some 'splainin to do....

So, let's see, Citigroup is in serious trouble. So much so that they need more bailout money, more capital, more cash. And that's good news. Huh?

So, let's see... another bank, another problem. The auto industy is about to flop over and they "only" want 25 billion dollars, but they can't have it (I actually agree with the decision, but bear with me on this), yet, two days later, Citigroup, just a single company gets another 20 billion on top of the 25 billion or so they've already received.

So, let's see, housing prices plummeted again, 50% of refinancing attempts were rejected or failed, foreclosures are up. And the market rallies.

So, what's the explanation? Simple, people think stocks hit bargain prices. No basis for the reasoning, other than "hey, they look cheap". OK, well you can't fight the tape, you can't fight city hall and you certainly cant' fight Wall Street.

Bottom line, a 2nd day of big rallies. Two day move of about 12% up on the S&P. Now where?

Damned if I know. You can't reason with unreasonable people. That's one of my favorite sayings. So, the unreasonable people are in control right now. The fact that the markets tanked in the final 15 minutes could mean that we hit the peak. Or it could just mean that day traders were cashing in their profits.

Tomorrow is another day. We are either in wave 4 up or this was just a bounce in wave 3 down. Right now it looks like an up wave but we'll have to wait for confirmation. If this is wave 4 up, just be ready for the big ugly wave 5 down that is on the way.

I'm ready for things to calm down. These wild moves are crazy (and I can't trade them right to save my life. hahaha)

We'll wait and see how the rest of the holiday week plays out.

We had Thanksgiving yesterday so I'm going to eat some leftovers now.

No comments: