Quick Post Election Update

The election is over... no more political ads, no more robo-calls... thank goodness. Now, back to the markets. I think this was a case of "buy the rumor, sell the news". The rally the past week was nothing more than a bear market rally which I've been saying would come and would look impressive. But now reality is back in the picture. Unemployment numbers coming out Friday, more bad news has been coming out all week but the markets still rallied. It can't last. We'll see the next wave down soon.

My next pivotal target date is Nov 15. That's when hedge funds have to make certain adjustments to their portfolios for year end. (45 days prior to the end of the year). Could be interesting thru next week.

That's all for now. Enjoy your day.

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Well this morning I said we'd see a wave down soon, but I didn't expect it to be today quite honesetly. Being short the market I was very glad to see it since I'd been getting clobbered the past week.

But will it continue on Thursday? Cisco released poor earnings and guidance after the bell so things are not looking good. But there are guesses that there may be some rate cuts in Europe and/or Asia that could provide a pop.

I'm sorry, but I simply don't see anything that will turn the markets up any time soon. We will bounce around, it won't be straight down. One analyst that I read actually said the next bounce up could be very impressive before the bigger wave down comes. I don't know about that. But as I've said, I read anything and everything I can and then I make my own guesses, estimates, determinations. I'll continue playing the down swings by being short.

I have to make up for my bonehead move last week when that huge one day rally hit and I didn't sell when I should have. I won't do that again, I promise you.

A couple of items to keep an eye out for. Treasuries have been on a tear lately and the markets haven't been reacting to it, which is odd and not good. Watch out for the unemployment rate being announced on Friday. My guess is it's going to be worse than expected and treasuries took it into account. If I'm right, watch out, Friday could be pretty bad.

I'm keeping myself prepared for rallies mixed in with the down turns. My retirement money will be sitting for a while. I can't play it that quickly. These massive 1 day swings that should happen over a week or two are too sharp and too fast.

I'm still convinced we'll see Dow down to around 7000 or 6500 as the bottom. These rallies we get keep people thinking that things are coming back and all will be fine and they stay in. "I'm already down 35%, it can't go down much further." But another 30% from here will be painful.

Good luck to all tomorrow.